A critical time

Esther Vera
3 min

The headline is a quote from a member of the government. This is "a critical time”, they said, adding that the tension is tangible within the Catalan executive. In cabinet meetings, forthright debate is a thing of the past due to the leaks about disagreements over the roadmap to independence. The shutdown affects key members of the government, who are upset about not having access to information on decisions affecting their departments and the possible consequences these might have for them. The lack of detail regarding the next steps in the process towards the referendum should be less following the rollout of an advertising campaign —scheduled for 4 July— explaining how the vote will be held. Those in the know speak of "another leap of faith", despite pressure from the Spanish government, that they feel is increasingly closer to home.

The court rulings banning individuals from holding government office over the non-binding 9-N vote have been followed by other complaints lodged by Societat Civil Catalana [“Catalan Civil Society”, a unionist group] before the Court of Auditors, demanding €5m from the defendants. Certain members of the government see the threats of criminal proceedings for crimes of sedition or embezzlement of public funds as crossing a line. They wonder how far they can personally tolerate the State’s retaliation, and when it comes down to it, if they will be asked to make the ultimate sacrifice. They wonder if, collectively, the pro-independence movement will be faced with crossing the line between heroism and adventure, bravery and recklessness.

In spite of all the difficulties and misgivings, President Puigdemont and Vice President Junqueras have a solid relationship and both of them have accepted the personal and political consequences of seeing the referendum process through. Certain courtly advisors have helped to convince them that "it is better to be banned by a court of law than by our own people" and that the day after the referendum, whenever that may be, the “political party system will be completely different, and they will need each other".

Madrid is stepping up the pressure with threats that seek to cause the independence bid to collapse and implode. It would be the best outcome for the state, which dedicates resources to threatening public officials and members of the Catalan government, along with suppliers and volunteers. However, the current state of affairs means that there is no way for them to explain how they could possible put a stop to the referendum in a civilised manner with the world’s media looking on.

It is also a critical time for the ruling Partido Popular, following years of political disrespect and the systematic dismantling of Catalan self-rule. Some in the PP are beginning to worry, since the caricature of the Catalans being eager to reach a compromise, which the state arrogantly confuses with cowardice, won’t work this time. To reflect, to ask questions, to draw lines in the sand, to be willing to talk and accept responsibility, this is what is asked of the political actors and public opinion, but they are starting to realise that if such disrespect causes the moderates to side with the Yes vote, the Catalan government has a winning hand: a referendum, a democratic decision. What, on the other hand, does the ruling PP party have to offer?

Both sides know that the credibility of keeping up the pressure to the end is crucial to success, and while the questions are asked in a hushed voice, the proclamations are made with a shout. The Spanish right has also begun to grow restless with the countdown to the referendum and it is beginning to wonder if it will really achieve the collapse of the movement and what degree of intervention it will be forced to resort to.

Reasons for optimism. If the tension reaches an intolerable level and the moderates and the most cautious —those Catalans who are as yet undecided or who fear a situation of instability— are forced to take sides, then the PP will pay the price for lacking a political project for the modernisation of Spain. The independence movement is at a difficult time, with the countdown and growing internal divisions, but the movement’s foundation is an indisputably attractive idea: to vote, to decide and to build.

The editorial in Friday's New York Times is a very valuable example. The world’s most prestigious newspaper has spoken about the great political problem that the Spanish government scorns in public and also pretends to ignore. The editorial states that Rajoy’s attitude provides a boost to the pro-independence camp and that it is a political issue that requires a political solution that goes beyond "the judiciary’s restrictive interpretation of the Constitution to punish Catalan efforts for greater autonomy". The NYT goes on to examine the economic dimension ("Catalonia contributes nearly a fifth of Spain’s GDP, yet the region receives just 9.5%") and urges Spain to negotiate "in good faith". Moreover, it asserts that intransigence only serves to fan the flames of Catalonia’s frustration.

The PP’s cunning and Spanish diplomacy have not worked with the NYT. Threats and fear do not work when someone's mind is free.

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